Trump's "Megabill" A Secret Weapon for Democrats in 2026?

Will Trump's Megabill Help Democrats Win the House?

As the 2026 midterm elections loom, a significant political battle is brewing over President Trump's recently passed tax-and-spending bill. Democrats believe this legislation, particularly its impact on Medicaid, presents a golden opportunity to sway public opinion and potentially reclaim control of the House.

The Democratic Perspective: "Cruel" and "Dangerous"

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been a vocal critic of the bill, characterizing it as "cruel" and "dangerous" during a lengthy speech. The core of the Democratic argument centers on the nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which they argue will disproportionately harm lower-income and elderly Americans. This reduction is intended to partially offset the trillions of dollars that Trump's tax cut extension will cost.

"This bill represents the largest cut to health care in American history," Jeffries stated, emphasizing the severity of the proposed changes.

Trump's Defense: An Economic Renaissance

President Trump, on the other hand, is actively promoting the bill as a catalyst for economic growth. He initiated a messaging campaign, touting it as the signature achievement of his second term.

"THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL DEAL IS ALL ABOUT GROWTH," Trump declared on social media. "IF PASSED, AMERICA WILL HAVE AN ECONOMIC RENAISSANCE LIKE NEVER BEFORE."

During an event in Iowa, Trump framed the bill's passage as a birthday present for America, aligning it with the nation's 250th-anniversary celebrations. He also expressed his disdain for Democrats, highlighting their unanimous opposition to the legislation.

Republicans on the Defensive

Despite Trump's enthusiasm, Republicans find themselves in a challenging position. Polling data suggests that more people oppose the bill than support it. However, the White House emphasizes that certain provisions, such as work requirements for Medicaid, garner more favorable opinions. The key, as always, will be how the argument is framed.

One obstacle for Republicans is the difficulty in arguing against a hypothetical tax increase that would occur without the bill's passage. This is a less compelling message than promising an outright tax cut.

Moreover, the tangible impact of Medicaid cuts will likely resonate with a significant portion of the population. According to KFF, nearly 7 in 10 Americans say that they, a family member, or a close friend have been covered by Medicaid.

Medicaid's Popularity: Key Findings from KFF

Medicaid enjoys widespread support, as evidenced by the following KFF findings:

• 83% have a favorable opinion of the program.
• 82% want to see Medicaid funding either increased or remain the same.
• 69% believe the program is working well for most low-income people covered.
• 66% of those in states that did not expand Medicaid coverage want to see it expanded in their state.
• 62% see Medicaid as primarily a government health insurance program as opposed to a welfare program.

It's important to note that some misconceptions about Medicaid exist. For instance, 62% of people believe that most working-age adults on Medicaid are unemployed, and almost half believe that immigrants without permanent legal status are eligible for the program, neither of which is true.

The Potential Impact: Millions Losing Coverage

While Republicans argue they are targeting "waste, fraud, and abuse," the Congressional Budget Office projects that nearly 12 million people are projected to lose their health insurance over the next decade as a result of the bill.

Lessons from the Past

Health care has historically been a pivotal issue in midterm elections. The 2010 midterms saw Democrats lose control of the House due to anger over the Affordable Care Act (ACA). However, the ACA's popularity grew over time, and health care helped Democrats regain control of the House in 2018.

The Approval Rating Conundrum

While Democrats hope to capitalize on Republican unpopularity, they face challenges of their own. Trump's approval rating stands at 43%, and congressional Republicans have an even lower rating of 35%. However, congressional Democrats are the least popular of all, with an approval rating of just 27%.

This internal dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party raises the question of whether they can rally ahead of the midterms, as they did in 2018, or if it signifies a deeper issue that could allow Republicans to maintain control of the House.

A Divided House Needs Internal Harmony

Ultimately, if Democrats aim to win back the House, they must first address the divisions within their own party and present a united front. The battle over Trump's megabill is shaping up to be a defining moment for both parties, with the potential to significantly impact the political landscape of the coming years. The ability to effectively communicate their message and mobilize their base will be crucial in determining which party emerges victorious.

Tags: Trump, Democrats, House, 2026 election, Medicaid, healthcare, Hakeem Jeffries, tax bill, spending, cuts

Source: https://www.npr.org/2025/07/05/nx-s1-5455928/trump-megabill-democrats-house-win-midterms