ULA's Launch Woes Has SpaceX Officially Won the Space Race?

SpaceX Solidifies Dominance in National Security Launches as ULA Grapples with Vulcan Delays

In a significant shift in the landscape of national security space missions, SpaceX is increasingly becoming the go-to provider, capitalizing on the ongoing delays plaguing United Launch Alliance's (ULA) new Vulcan rocket.

This dynamic was further underscored on Friday, when a SpaceX Falcon 9 successfully launched the GPS III-7 mission from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The first-stage booster, demonstrating its reusability, completed its fourth flight and landed on the droneship "A Shortfall of Gravitas."

Mission Originally Awarded to ULA

Notably, this GPS satellite launch was initially awarded to ULA but later transferred to SpaceX under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 contract. Both this launch and a prior one slated for December 2024 were reassigned to SpaceX due to the prolonged certification delays of ULA's Vulcan rocket, intended to replace its Atlas V and Delta IV fleets.

While designated as GPS III-7, this mission marks the eighth of ten advanced satellites crafted by Lockheed Martin, enhancing the U.S.'s GPS capabilities. It aligns with the Space Force's accelerated mission timeline, aiming to deploy critical payloads in under three months from the go-ahead decision.

“It highlights another instance of the Space Force’s ability to complete high priority launches on a rapid timescale, which demonstrates the capability to respond to emergent constellation needs as rapidly as space vehicle readiness allows,” said Space Force Col. Jim Horne, senior materiel leader of launch execution with the Assured Access to Space program.

The upgraded GPS satellites are reported to be three times more accurate and eight times more resistant to jamming than their predecessors, enhancing the resilience of the U.S.'s space-based navigation infrastructure.

ULA's Vulcan Faces Scrutiny

The NSSL Phase 2 contract initially allocated 60% of assignments to ULA, all intended for the Vulcan rocket, with initial launches expected by summer 2022. However, persistent delays have reshuffled the deck.

Here's a breakdown of the contract shifts:

• Originally, ULA was slated for 26 missions, and SpaceX for 22.
• Two missions have now been transferred from ULA to SpaceX.
• The Space Force has indicated that ULA will regain two future missions previously assigned to SpaceX.

To date, ULA has only executed one of its 26 missions, utilizing a remaining Atlas V rocket last summer.

The Vulcan rocket's debut, initially targeted for mid-2020, has been hampered by a confluence of factors:

• COVID-related disruptions
• Engine acquisition delays from Blue Origin
• Customer payload delays
• A test stand incident

Vulcan's first flight took place in January 2024, with a second flight in October. However, a solid rocket booster issue during the second flight has pushed back national security certification to March 2025.

Major Gen. Stephen G. Purdy, acting assistant secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration, expressed concerns regarding ULA's delays in testimony to the U.S. House Armed Services Committee. He stated that ULA's Vulcan program has performed unsatisfactorily this past year and the transition to Vulcan has been slow and continues to impact the completion of Space Force mission objectives.”

Vulcan's certification remains partial, covering only five of the Space Force's nine orbital needs. However, Purdy noted increased resources and focus from ULA to address design issues.

Phase 3 Contracts Favor SpaceX

Earlier this year, the Space Force awarded SpaceX the lion's share of Phase 3 contracts, totaling $13.7 billion over five years. SpaceX is set to receive 28 of 54 planned missions (52%), while ULA will handle 19 missions (35%), and Blue Origin will take on seven (13%).

Purdy emphasized the need for contractors to “re-establish baselines, establish a culture of accountability, and repair trust deficit” in order to deliver capabilities effectively.

ULA's Next Steps

ULA is planning its second launch of the year, a commercial mission for Amazon using an Atlas V rocket, targeting liftoff no earlier than June 13. This follows the April launch of Amazon's Project Kuiper internet satellite constellation.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has already flown its Falcon 9 on 65 missions this year, including 44 from the Space Coast, underscoring its current operational tempo.

The shifting dynamics in the national security launch market reflect the criticality of reliability and timely execution. SpaceX's demonstrated capabilities have positioned it as a key player, while ULA faces the challenge of overcoming its Vulcan-related setbacks and regaining its competitive edge. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term balance in this vital sector.

Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/spacex-knocks-another-national-security-002900694.html