Trump's Bill on the Brink 7 Senators Who Hold All the Cards

7 Senators to Watch as Republicans Revise Trump's Landmark Bill

As Senate Republican leaders aim to finalize a sweeping bill aligned with President Donald Trump's agenda by July 4th, they face a complex balancing act of diverse demands and political considerations. The margin for error is razor-thin, with every vote crucial for passage.

While all Democrats are expected to oppose the package, Republicans need at least **50 votes** to secure its passage. Vice President JD Vance stands ready to break any tie.

Here's a closer look at seven key senators whose positions and priorities could significantly shape the final outcome:

• Rand Paul (R-Ky.): The consistent dissenter. Paul has voted against the legislation at every stage, citing concerns over increased military spending, the growing deficit, and the **$5 trillion debt limit hike.** While he supports extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts, he insists on offsetting them with trillions in spending cuts, a prospect unlikely to gain consensus within the GOP. Expect a "no" vote from Paul unless there's a drastic, and improbable, shift.
• Susan Collins (R-Maine): A moderate voice facing re-election. Collins' shift from supporting the initial budget resolution to opposing the revised version signals deep concerns. Her primary objection stems from potential Medicaid cuts harming low-income and elderly constituents. She also opposes targeting Medicare and overriding the Senate parliamentarian. Collins' vote hinges on addressing her specific demands, requiring serious consideration from party leaders.
• Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska): The independent voice with a list of grievances. Despite initially supporting the budget blueprint, Murkowski has a long list of concerns that must be addressed to secure her vote. These include Medicaid cuts and accounting tactics obscuring the true cost of tax cuts. She has also criticized the phasing out of clean energy tax credits vital to Alaska's energy independence. Murkowski's independent streak makes her a crucial swing vote.
• Mike Crapo (R-Idaho): The Finance Committee Chairman navigating delicate balances. As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Crapo plays a pivotal role in shaping key aspects of the bill, including tax and Medicaid cuts. He faces the challenge of crafting changes palatable to both the Senate and the narrowly divided House. His biggest test is navigating the disconnect between House priorities (like expanded SALT deductions) and Senate sentiment.
• Thom Tillis (R-N.C.): A balancing act between party and re-election. Tillis seeks adjustments to the clean energy tax credit phaseouts to protect existing U.S. business investments. While generally positive about the bill's direction, making him a likely "yes," he remains skeptical about meeting the July 4th deadline. He is also balancing a tough re-election campaign next year with staying in Trump’s good graces to avoid a primary challenge.
• Ron Johnson (R-Wis.): The deficit hawk feeling the pressure. Johnson has strongly criticized the bill's estimated **$2.4 trillion** contribution to the deficit, stating he cannot support it in its current form. He advocates breaking up the mega-bill and limiting the debt ceiling increase. While Trump has urged him to be "less negative," Johnson's past shift on the 2017 tax law gives party leaders hope he can be swayed.
• Josh Hawley (R-Mo.): The defender of Medicaid "benefits." Hawley is the Senate GOP's most outspoken critic of Medicaid cuts, specifically targeting the Medicaid provider tax and cost-sharing provisions in the House bill. However, he supports coverage losses from Medicaid work requirements. He also opposes any Medicare provisions, calling it a recipe for electoral disaster.

The coming weeks will be a test of Republican unity and leadership. Compromises will be essential, and the ability to address the diverse concerns of these key senators will determine the fate of this landmark legislation.

The push to finalize the bill by July 4th represents an ambitious, perhaps even optimistic, timeline. Whether Republicans can successfully navigate these complex political currents remains to be seen, but the stakes for President Trump's agenda are undeniably high.

Tags: Trump agenda, Senate Republicans, Republican senators, Rand Paul, US politics, legislation vote, political demands, military spending, debt limit, JD Vance

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/7-senators-watch-republicans-make-changes-trumps-big-bill-rcna211134