NYC Mayoral Race Could This Upset Flip the Entire City?

Breaking Down the State of New York’s Mayoral Race on Primary Day

New York's mayoral primary race is heating up, and the final polls are painting a fascinating, albeit potentially inconclusive, picture. With ranked-choice voting adding another layer of complexity, predicting a winner is proving to be a challenging task.

Conflicting Polls, Uncertain Outcomes

The latest Emerson College/WPIX/The Hill survey suggests a possible upset, showing former Governor Andrew Cuomo leading Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani 36% to 34% in initial first-choice votes. However, after multiple rounds of ranked-choice tabulation, Mamdani pulls ahead, winning the final tally 52% to 48%.

Key Caveats:

• Sparse Polling Data: Public polls have been infrequent, primarily conducted by Emerson and Marist University.
• Contradictory Results: Marist’s final poll indicates a different outcome, with Cuomo leading by double digits both initially and after ranked-choice tabulation.
• Electorate Uncertainty: While both polls find Cuomo favored by in-person voters, turnout remains a crucial unknown.

The Ranked-Choice Factor

Ranked-choice voting is still relatively new to New York City, making accurate polling more difficult. However, Emerson's track record is noteworthy. Their final poll in the 2021 mayoral primary closely mirrored the actual outcome, with Eric Adams narrowly defeating Kathryn Garcia.

Discrepancies in the Data

A significant difference between the Emerson and Marist polls lies in their assessment of Black voters, who are expected to comprise about a third of the electorate. Marist shows Cuomo with a substantial lead among Black voters, while Emerson suggests Mamdani has made late gains, winning 38% of their vote in the final round against Cuomo.

Another key difference involves City Comptroller Brad Lander. Both polls agree that when Lander is eliminated, his supporters lean more towards Mamdani. However, the impact varies significantly. In Marist's poll, it slightly reduces Cuomo's lead. In Emerson's poll, it dramatically propels Mamdani to victory.

Why the Discrepancies?

The timing of the polls may be a factor. Emerson's poll was conducted after Lander's arrest at an immigration court, potentially boosting his support. Additionally, Lander and Mamdani recently teamed up, encouraging their voters to rank each other on their ballots, which could explain Mamdani's gains when Lander is eliminated.

When Will We Know the Results?

Don't expect a winner to be declared on primary day. While first-choice votes will be reported Tuesday evening, mail-in ballots postmarked by Tuesday can still be added over the next week. The city will run the ranked-choice tabulations next Tuesday. Even then, a close race could be further impacted by provisional ballots.

The General Election Wildcard

Even a primary loss may not be the end of the road. New York's election laws allow candidates who lose primaries to run in the general election on a separate ballot line. Cuomo has already launched the "Fight and Deliver Party." Given Mamdani's left-wing politics, a loss for Cuomo in the primary could tempt him to take the fight to the general election.

Mamdani could also run as the candidate of the Working Families Party. Meanwhile, current Mayor Adams is already running in the general election on his own ballot line, and Republicans are poised to nominate Curtis Sliwa. Jim Walden is also mounting an independent bid.

Conclusion: A Race Far From Over

The New York mayoral race is anything but predictable. With conflicting polls and the complexities of ranked-choice voting, the primary outcome remains uncertain. And even after the primary, multiple candidates could still be in the running for the general election, promising an exciting and potentially chaotic race to the finish line. One thing is clear: New York voters will have a lot to consider before choosing their next mayor.

Tags: New York, mayoral primary, Andrew Cuomo, Zohran Mamdani, election poll, democratic primary, ranked choice, Emerson College, Marist poll, New York election

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/steve-kornacki-breaking-state-new-yorks-mayoral-race-primary-day-rcna214579