Netanyahu Dodges a Bullet Is This the Beginning of the End?

Netanyahu Survives Dissolution Vote, But Coalition Weakened

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu narrowly avoided a significant political defeat this week, surviving a vote to dissolve Parliament. However, the victory comes at a cost, exposing deep fissures within his governing coalition and highlighting the persistent challenges he faces in maintaining stability. The vote centered around the contentious issue of military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men, a long-standing point of contention in Israeli society.

The opposition's move to bring the dissolution bill to a vote was a strategic maneuver designed to exploit divisions within Netanyahu's coalition. The core of the conflict lies in the decades-old policy that largely exempts ultra-Orthodox men studying in religious seminaries from compulsory military service. This exemption has become increasingly controversial, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Gaza.

The primary actors in this political drama are:

• Netanyahu's Likud Party: Attempting to mediate and maintain coalition unity.
• United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas: Ultra-Orthodox parties fiercely protective of the exemption.
• Other Coalition Members: Favoring a broader conscription base, including ultra-Orthodox men.
• The Opposition: Seeking to capitalize on the government's internal strife.

The ultra-Orthodox parties, UTJ and Shas, had threatened to break ranks and vote with the opposition, potentially providing the necessary majority to dissolve Parliament. This threat stemmed from their disagreement with proposals to enlist more ultra-Orthodox men into the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The urgency surrounding this issue has intensified since the October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent war in Gaza, fueling public anger and scrutiny of the exemption policy.

In the end, only two members of UTJ defied their party leadership and supported the dissolution bill. This was largely due to an 11th-hour compromise reached between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox politicians regarding potential legislation on enlistment. This agreement, though averting immediate crisis, is likely a temporary fix and doesn't resolve the underlying tensions.

Key Takeaways:

• Netanyahu survived the vote, but his coalition remains fragile.
• The ultra-Orthodox draft issue is a persistent source of political instability.
• Public pressure for equitable military service is growing.
• The compromise reached is likely a temporary solution.

It's important to note that even if the vote had passed, it wouldn't have immediately triggered the government's downfall. The parliamentary process dictates that this vote was preliminary, and any final vote would have been months away. This would have provided Netanyahu with time to reinforce his increasingly divided coalition or to create more favorable conditions before facing another election.

While Netanyahu has navigated this particular challenge, the underlying issues of coalition unity and the ultra-Orthodox draft remain potent threats to his government's stability. The long-term solution will require a more comprehensive and sustainable agreement that addresses the concerns of all stakeholders and reflects the changing needs of Israeli society in the face of ongoing security challenges. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Netanyahu can effectively manage these tensions and maintain his grip on power.

Tags: Israel politics, Ultra-Orthodox, Military service, Draft law, Netanyahu, Coalition crisis, UTJ party, Shas party, Gaza war, Political tensions

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/world/middleeast/israel-knesset-vote-orthodox-draft-law.html