Israel's Iran Nuke Nightmare Trump's Delay Leaves Them Hanging

Forced to Wait for Trump, Israel Faces Strategic Dilemma in Iran

President Trump's decision to defer an American attack on Iran has placed Israel in a precarious strategic position, forcing difficult choices with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Israel's primary military objective remains the neutralization of the nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, located in northern Iran. This site is deeply buried, posing a significant challenge, as Israeli weaponry may struggle to inflict substantial damage.

For several days, Israeli officials harbored hopes that President Trump would authorize a U.S. military intervention, deploying warplanes equipped with specialized munitions believed to be capable of effectively destroying Fordo. However, Mr. Trump has announced a delay of up to two weeks before deciding on potential intervention, creating a critical dilemma for Israel.

This delay presents several challenges for Israel:

• Increased Strain on Air Defenses: The longer the wait, the greater the strain on Israel's air defense system.
• Depletion of Interceptors: Intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles is rapidly depleting Israel's missile interceptor stocks, necessitating prioritization of certain areas over others.
• Elevated Risk: This prioritization increases the risk of missile strikes on civilian neighborhoods and critical security installations.
• Economic Impact: Protracted conflict leads to airspace closures and suspended economic activity, resulting in substantial financial losses.

Faced with these challenges, Israel has several potential courses of action:

1. Unilateral Attack: Israel could launch an independent attack on Fordo, utilizing its existing aircraft and munitions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at this possibility, stating that Israel would "achieve all of our objectives, all of their nuclear facilities. We have the power to do so.”
2. Limitations of Unilateral Action: However, experts caution that a solo operation may be limited in scope and effectiveness compared to a U.S. military operation. As Itamar Rabinovich, former Israeli ambassador to Washington, noted, "It probably won’t be on the scale of what the U.S. can achieve. If we could do what the U.S. can, we would have already done it."
3. Unilateral Ceasefire: Israel could opt to end the war without targeting Fordo. This option, however, would leave a significant portion of Iran's nuclear enrichment program intact, raising the risk of Iran developing a nuclear weapon.

Currently, Israel seems disinclined to pursue a unilateral ceasefire. Israeli leaders have begun publicly discussing strategies such as regime change in Iran and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even if these objectives are unattainable, the rhetoric suggests a commitment to continued military action for the foreseeable future.

The Israeli media and recent opinion polls indicate strong domestic support for the ongoing military campaign. Mr. Netanyahu's party is currently enjoying its highest polling numbers since the Hamas attack in October 2023.

Ultimately, Israel's strategic position remains complex and fraught with risk. The coming days will be crucial in determining the course of action, with potential implications for regional stability and international security.

The forced waiting period is undeniably placing Israel under immense pressure, demanding a blend of strategic patience and decisive planning. The decisions made in the coming days will not only shape the immediate future but will also resonate for years to come, impacting the delicate balance of power in the Middle East.

Tags: Trump Iran, Israel, Fordo, Nuclear enrichment, US attack, Missile defense, Strategic bind, Air defense, Ballistic missiles, Military intervention

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/world/middleeast/israel-iran-trump.html