Is Trump About to Get Played? Xi and Putin's Iran Gambit.

Major Powers Unite: Xi and Putin Project Unity Amidst Israel-Iran Tensions

In a world grappling with escalating geopolitical tensions, China and Russia are strategically positioning themselves as voices of reason, advocating for de-escalation amidst the burgeoning Israel-Iran crisis. This stance was prominently displayed during a recent phone call between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, projecting an image of stability against a backdrop of potential US involvement.

As President Trump contemplates potential US intervention in the conflict, Beijing and Moscow are seizing the opportunity to present themselves as an alternative to US dominance in the region. This strategic alignment raises critical questions about the future of global power dynamics.

During their conversation, Putin voiced strong condemnation of Israel's actions, the Kremlin reported, characterizing them as violations of the UN Charter and international law. Of course, Russia’s own actions in Ukraine cast a long shadow on these pronouncements.

Xi adopted a more nuanced approach in Beijing’s official statement. While stopping short of explicitly condemning Israel, unlike his foreign minister's earlier remarks, he emphasized the urgent need for a ceasefire. His statement included this key point:

• “...especially Israel,” to cease fire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation and regional spillover.

Notably, Xi subtly directed a message towards Trump, stressing that influential "major powers" should focus on "cooling the situation, not the opposite." This veiled critique underscores Beijing's long-held view of Washington as a source of instability in the Middle East.

Echoes of Past Policies

Analysts like Liu Zhongmin from the Shanghai International Studies University are pointing to the uncertainty created by Trump's potential second presidency and his Middle East policies as contributing factors to the current crisis.

Liu argues:

• “(Trump) has seriously undermined the authority and credibility of US policy in the Middle East..."
• "...eroded America’s leadership and image among its allies..."
• "...weakening its ability to threaten and deter regional adversaries.”

Avoiding Another "Forever War"

Concerns are growing about the possibility of the US being drawn into another protracted conflict in the Middle East. This comes at a time when Washington is supposedly prioritizing its strategic focus on countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with the potential involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, present significant challenges to this strategy.

Iran's Strategic Importance to China

An all-out war against Iran is not in China's interest. Under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has grown into a significant regional power and a crucial counterbalance to US influence. Here's why Iran is crucial to China:

• Counterweight to US Dominance: Iran's regional influence challenges US hegemony.
• Rapprochement Broker: China brokered a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, signalling its growing influence.
• Economic Ties: China maintains strong oil imports from Iran and supports it at the UN Security Council.
• Strategic Partnerships: Joint naval exercises with Russia and Iran, membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS enhance strategic ties.
• Belt and Road Initiative: Iran is a critical node in the BRI, offering access to key strategic locations like the Gwadar port and the Strait of Hormuz.

Mediation Efforts and Challenges

Like Russia, China has offered to mediate the Israel-Iran conflict, presenting itself as a peaceful alternative to US leadership. Xi proposed a four-point plan to de-escalate tensions, emphasizing dialogue on the Iran nuclear issue and civilian protection. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also been actively engaging with counterparts in Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Oman.

However, questions remain about China's capacity to effectively mediate such a complex conflict. Past efforts, such as the special envoy dispatched during the Gaza war, yielded limited tangible results. China's limited experience in mediating protracted conflicts and its lack of significant political or security presence in the Middle East pose considerable obstacles.

A Symbolic Victory?

Despite the challenges, positioning itself as a voice of restraint amidst the Iran conflict could be seen as a symbolic victory for Beijing, particularly in the eyes of the Global South, where America's global leadership faces increasing skepticism.

In conclusion, the united front presented by Xi and Putin reflects a broader strategy to reshape global power dynamics. While the tangible impact of their mediation efforts remains uncertain, their stance underscores a shifting landscape where alternative voices are emerging on the world stage.

Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/xi-putin-present-united-front-072742825.html