"Ballerina" Kicks Off Box Office, But Can It Stick the Landing?

Box Office: ‘Ballerina’ Arms Itself With $10.6 Million Opening Day, ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Gets Third Weekend on Top

Lionsgate's highly anticipated "John Wick" spin-off, "Ballerina," starring Ana de Armas, has entered the box office arena, securing a respectable $10.65 million on its opening day, which includes Friday and preview screenings across 3,409 locations. This marks Lionsgate's first major theatrical foray into expanding the popular action franchise.

While the opening day numbers are solid, "Ballerina" is currently pacing slightly behind earlier projections. Initial forecasts suggested a debut closer to $28 million, but current estimates place the weekend earnings between $25.5 million and $27.5 million. Interestingly, this opening day gross is the second-lowest within the "John Wick" universe, marginally trailing "John Wick: Chapter 2," which debuted with $10.96 million back in 2017.

Several factors could be contributing to this tempered performance:

• Franchise Reset: "Ballerina" represents a thematic shift for the R-rated action series.
• Keanu Reeves' Reduced Role: The iconic series star, Keanu Reeves, takes on a smaller supporting role this time around.

This debut is a noticeable step down from the franchise's upward trajectory. "John Wick" began as a sleeper hit in 2014, grossing $43 million in North America, before evolving into a blockbuster series, culminating in "Chapter 4," which earned a staggering $187 million and became the ninth-highest-grossing domestic release of 2023. Furthermore, "Ballerina" carries a significant production cost of $90 million, approaching the $100 million budget of "Chapter 4." It's worth noting that Lionsgate often mitigates financial risk by securing foreign pre-sales, which, while limiting potential profit upside, also reduces overall exposure.

Despite this, Lionsgate remains committed to expanding the "John Wick" universe. Future projects include:

• A fifth mainline entry starring Keanu Reeves.
• An animated prequel.
• A spin-off directed by and starring Donnie Yen ("Chapter 4" standout).

Critics have generally responded positively to "Ballerina," directed by Len Wiseman. Audiences seem to be even more enthusiastic, with CinemaScore reporting a strong "A-" grade. It remains to be seen whether this positive word-of-mouth will translate into a stronger box office performance in the coming days.

However, "Ballerina" isn't expected to dethrone Disney's "Lilo & Stitch," which is poised for a third consecutive weekend at the top of the charts. The live-action remake added another $9.3 million on Friday, marking a 45% decrease from the previous week. Projections indicate a third-weekend haul exceeding $33 million, pushing its domestic gross past $335 million by Sunday. Notably, on Saturday, "Lilo & Stitch" will break into the all-time top 100 list for North American releases.

Further down the rankings:

Focus Features' "The Phoenician Scheme," Wes Anderson's latest, expanded to 1,678 theaters after a limited debut. The film earned $2.55 million on Friday and is projected to earn $5.8 million over the three-day weekend, securing sixth place. However, this lags behind Anderson's previous collaboration with Focus, "Asteroid City," which earned $9 million during its expansion. Audience reception to "The Phoenician Scheme" is more mixed, with CinemaScore awarding a "B-" grade.

"Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning" is holding strong in third place, benefiting from Imax screenings. The Paramount and Skydance action film earned $4 million on Friday and is expected to reach $14.8 million for its third weekend, a 45% drop. Its domestic gross is projected to hit $149 million by Sunday, outpacing "Dead Reckoning" but trailing "Fallout." Given its substantial $400 million production cost, achieving theatrical profitability remains a challenge.

"Karate Kid: Legends" takes fourth place, adding $2.4 million on Friday, with an estimated $8.7 million for its second weekend (a 57% drop). The martial arts sequel is expected to reach $35 million domestically after 10 days, a modest result considering its $45 million production budget.

"Final Destination: Bloodlines" secures fifth place, earning $1.9 million on Friday and surpassing $120 million domestically on Saturday.

Notably, Warner Bros.' "Sinners" remains in the top 10, exceeding $270 million domestically on Friday. It is poised to surpass "Gravity" ($274 million) and become the highest-grossing original film in North America in the past 15 years, a significant achievement for Ryan Coogler's R-rated vampire thriller.

Finally, the shark thriller "Dangerous Animals" from Shudder opened in 1,636 venues, earning approximately $760,000 and is unlikely to reach the top 10.

The box office landscape remains dynamic and competitive. While "Ballerina" hasn't exploded onto the scene as some predicted, it's a solid start for a spin-off film in a well-loved action franchise. The coming weeks will reveal its staying power and the potential for the "John Wick" universe to continue its expansion.

Source: https://variety.com/2025/film/news/box-office-ballerina-opening-day-1236421852/